How the AI pick works and how the record is kept

The model (v1F) estimates each horse's chance of winning from pre-race information — horse, jockey, draw and weight. It does not use the odds. The horse with the highest chance in each race is the AI top pick; ties go to the model's rank, then the horse number.

Predictions are generated before the race and sealed at the off. After the race we only add the settlement; the sealed prediction never changes. Each race page shows when its predictions were sealed.

The record backs every AI top pick with $10 win and $10 place at the Hong Kong Jockey Club's dividends. A scratched horse is a refund and does not count as a bet; a bet whose dividend is not yet published is pending and does not count either.

For comparison, the favourite — the lowest win odds at the off — is settled the same way in the same races.

We do not yet have place probabilities, so we never quote a "place chance". Data comes from the Hong Kong Jockey Club's public information, compiled by OddsFlow; the Jockey Club's official figures always prevail.